US durable goods orders rose 1.8 per cent to 345.4 billion dollars in September. Transportation equipment supplied most of the increase; orders excluding that category rose 0.5 per cent. The advance estimates are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for price changes. Orders and shipments measure different stages, so the headline does not represent goods delivered that month.
US durable goods orders increased 1.8 per cent in September, according to advance estimates released by the Census Bureau on October 27. We are Savers also reported the increase. The value of orders rose by 6.3 billion dollars to 345.4 billion dollars. Transportation equipment accounted for 5.2 billion dollars of that gain, rising 4.6 per cent to 119.8 billion dollars. Orders excluding transportation increased by a more modest 0.5 per cent.[1], [2]
The value of shipments rose 0.9 per cent to 336.8 billion dollars after declining in August. Unfilled orders increased 0.8 per cent, while inventories grew 0.3 per cent. Orders, shipments and inventories describe different stages of manufacturing activity. Placing an order does not mean the product was made and delivered during the same month. The order increase therefore cannot be read as an equal increase in completed production or deliveries.[1]
The bureau adjusts the estimates for seasonal effects but not for price changes. They describe nominal dollar values rather than an inflation-adjusted volume of physical output. New and unfilled order estimates exclude semiconductors. The survey does not use probability sampling. The bureau supplies no confidence interval for sampling error. The figures are preliminary and can be revised in later releases, as the revised August estimate in this release illustrates.[1]
