US home-purchase contracts sink to a record low in September
US pending home sales fell 7.3 percent in September to the lowest index reading on record, with declines across all four regions. The measure tracks signed contracts rather than completed transactions. The drop came as the average thirty-year mortgage rate rose to 6.86 percent, while contract activity was 11.3 percent below its level a year earlier. It was the highest mortgage rate since January 2025.
Economics & Markets··Midday
September contracts fall across all four regions
US homebuyers signed fewer contracts to buy existing homes in September, taking the National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index to 66.0. The index fell 7.3 percent from August and 11.3 percent from a year earlier. It was the lowest reading in the series and the third monthly decline in four months.[1], [2]
The series extends back to 2001. August's 0.3 percent gain and July's 2.6 percent decline were unchanged. September's annual fall was the largest since August 2023, compared with a 4.7 percent annual decrease in August. The index was 47.2 percent below its October 2021 high of 125.1.[1]
The West records the steepest contraction
The four US regions recorded monthly and annual declines. The West had the biggest falls, down 9.2 percent from August and 15.0 percent from September a year earlier. The South declined 8.2 percent over the month and 12.0 percent annually. Both regions registered their third monthly decrease in four months. The Midwest fell 6.5 percent monthly and 8.7 percent annually; the Northeast lost 4.2 percent and 9.4 percent respectively. For those two regions, monthly declines extended to a fourth consecutive month.[1]
Mortgage rates rise as contracts precede closings
The average thirty-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.86 percent in September, the highest since January 2025, according to Freddie Mac data cited by Haver. It had risen 13 basis points to 6.67 percent in August. September's rate remained below the 7.62 percent peak of October 2023, but exceeded August 2022's 5.22 percent and was more than twice December 2020's record low of 2.68 percent. Pending sales are recorded when a purchase contract is signed. The association's completed existing-home sales instead count closings, usually a couple of months later; its research found contract activity leads completed sales by about two months.[1]
