Sales rose at JB Hi-Fi's New Zealand arm and fell in Australia in July

The numbers rose, the shares fell

JB Hi-Fi lifted revenue 4.8 per cent to 11.06 billion dollars in the year to June and net profit after tax 6 per cent to 489.9 million dollars, with earnings before interest and tax up 5.8 per cent to 734.4 million dollars. The full-year ordinary dividend rose 22.5 per cent to 337 cents per share. The balance sheet is comfortable as well: the group closed the year with 206.5 million dollars of net cash and no interest-bearing debt.^[1]

Over the same 12 months the shares lost almost 30 per cent and sat among the weakest performers on the S&P/ASX 200 index. The divergence shows up in the sales table: New Zealand sales grew 26 per cent, JB Hi-Fi's Australian stores 4.4 per cent and The Good Guys 2.7 per cent. In July the two Australian brands dipped slightly while New Zealand kept growing strongly.^[1]

The same split on the credit side

National Australia Bank's third-quarter update landed the same morning. Cash earnings rose 2 per cent on the first-half quarterly average to 1.83 billion dollars and statutory net profit 32 per cent to 1.81 billion dollars; the core capital ratio climbed to 11.93 per cent and the net interest margin narrowed 2 basis points to 1.79 per cent. Australian business lending grew 2 per cent, and 4 per cent in Business and Private Banking. Home loan applications fell 15 per cent from the previous quarter, and while the non-performing loan ratio fell, watch loans increased.^[2]

The retailer and the bank sit in different sectors and measure the same constraint: the Australian household's appetite to spend and to borrow. The retailer's July sales and the bank's home loan applications point the same way; business lending and New Zealand sales point the other. An alternative reading stays open: the fall in the shares may track the sector or rate expectations, and the bank's gain in cash earnings came mainly from lower credit impairment charges, as chief executive Andrew Irvine noted.^{[1], [2]}

What would settle it?

The next sales table will show whether the split holds. If JB Hi-Fi's first-half result for the 2027 financial year again puts Australian sales below a year earlier while New Zealand keeps growing, the weakness priced into the shares belongs to domestic demand. National Australia Bank's fourth-quarter home loan applications will answer the same question from the credit side. The company says it expects a variable trading environment in the short term; these two items are the measurable part.^{[1], [2]}