Today's risk: an attack, but no proof of closure
Brent rose 7% on July 23 to close at $100.69, while WTI gained 6% to $92.19. The attack on the tanker Encelia and the resulting fire were confirmed, with the crew reported safe. Some vessel diversions make the immediate routing risk visible. But available reporting neither confirms a chokepoint closure nor shows how many barrels, if any, have left the market.[1], [4]
Southwest's cargo of 12.6 million gallons of jet fuel sailed from Houston through the Panama Canal and arrived in Los Angeles on May 28. Its May 28 arrival places it well before the July 23 price jump and identifies it as an earlier physical buffer against West Coast supply risk.[2]
Tomorrow's capacity runs on another clock
Financing of $2.5 billion was secured for the Dangote refinery expansion, which targets an increase from 650,000 to 1.4 million barrels a day. The plan was announced in October 2025 and its target timeline extends to 2028. The secured funds advance a project announced months before the Red Sea shock; additional operating barrels depend on construction and commissioning and therefore sit outside the current disruption.[3], [5]
Two physical clocks are running here. In the near term, the count is actual Bab el-Mandeb transits, exports from Yanbu, freight, insurance premiums and product inventories; diversions immediately add time, fuel and canal costs. Dangote's clock runs through construction, commissioning and sustained utilization toward 2028. One measures today's risk premium and the other a future refining buffer; the only link between them is a barrel that actually reaches the market.[1], [4], [3], [5]