The refund is booked in earnings; 2.1 billion dollars is in the bank

The booked amount and the collected cash

The first tariff-refund payments have landed, and they produced two separate figures. More than 40 S&P 500 companies reported 9.6 billion dollars in refunds over the past quarter or so; the cash actually collected is about 2.1 billion dollars. The reported amount concentrates in a handful of names: Apple at 2.2 billion dollars, Nike at 986 million dollars, FedEx at 800 million dollars, Amazon at 640 million dollars and General Motors at 500 million dollars.^[1]

The gap is a question of payment schedule. The duties collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and later invalidated total 166 billion dollars. Customs and Border Protection accepted submissions covering 129 billion dollars of that and has sent 100 billion dollars to the Treasury for disbursement. What stands between the earnings entry and the bank balance is therefore a claim on the government: the debtor issues the currency, so the risk accumulates in the timing rather than in the collection. The speed of payments so far, and the fact that several companies received the full amount they asked for, also shows the gap can close quickly.^[1]

The same importer and the duty waiting behind it

A second bill in front of the same importers has not been settled. Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and chief negotiator Janice Charette met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington on Thursday afternoon, the fourth meeting in three weeks. Duties of 50 per cent on hundreds of Canadian goods take effect on Aug. 19. Sources told CBC News that the American offer made on Tuesday, which would lower some sectoral tariffs, was not judged sufficient by the Canadian side.^[2]

The refund reaches only as far as the duties collected under the authority that was struck down. When duties raised on a different legal basis run through the same import lane, the amount booked today meets a cost line tomorrow. The threshold to watch is plain: the ratio of cash collected to refunds reported in third-quarter disclosures. If the 50 per cent duties take effect on Aug. 19 without a deal, a rise in that ratio has to be read alongside the new duty burden building at the same S&P 500 companies.^{[1], [2]}