Hormuz traffic falls as the alternative route also comes under pressure
Only eight ships crossed Hormuz on Sunday; attacks are also straining the Red Sea alternative, while Iran says talks with Oman on a new route are nearing completion.
Geopolitics··Evening
Daily transit fell into single figures
Kpler data cited by the BBC show that 11 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and only eight on Sunday. Before the war, the daily count exceeded 100, and roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and gas moved through the waterway. A temporary agreement with the United States in early June had lifted traffic, before renewed strikes about a month later cut it sharply again. Many vessels that still use the strait switch off their position transmitters, according to the report. That practice means public ship-tracking data do not capture every movement, but the crossings visible to Kpler remain far below the prewar flow. Kpler analyst Matthew Wright said the threat to crude trade was at its worst since the crisis began. The figures do not describe a completely sealed passage. They describe a narrow route used by very few ships, some of them operating with less public visibility, at a time when owners and crews must decide whether the passage can be made safely. The fall into single figures is the clearest current measure of that disruption.[1]
The Red Sea detour is also facing attacks
As Hormuz traffic thinned, some tankers carrying Saudi oil moved to a Red Sea lane between the kingdom and West Africa. That detour is now under pressure too. The Houthi movement announced what it called a blockade of Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports on July 20, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported several attacks on ships during the following week. Kpler counted 28 commodity vessels through Bab el-Mandeb on Saturday, six with their position transmitters off. Total traffic was roughly half its pre-attack level, while Asia-bound crude loadings fell to about four a day, the lowest since the war began. Against that backdrop, Iran says it is working with Oman on a third route through Hormuz, separate from the existing northern and southern corridors and designed with distinct entry and exit lanes. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the talks were nearing completion, and spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the sides were close to an understanding on a route acceptable to both. No detailed route plan has yet been published. The proposal is emerging while both the original chokepoint and the main maritime detour are carrying less traffic under heightened security risk.[1], [2]
The Oman route and the US talks remain separate files
Work on a new maritime route does not establish that Iran and the United States have entered a wider agreement. On Al Jazeera's Monday live page, Baghaei said Tehran was not holding talks with Washington at that moment. Donald Trump said an agreement was imminent and that negotiations would begin the same day. The only active channel identified by the Iranian spokesperson was the discussion with Oman over a new Hormuz route. Tehran also called for compliance with the memorandum it signed with the United States on June 17. The statements present the opening of the strait, the Oman route arrangement and negotiations with Washington as separate files in Iran's account. Current shipping data describe a situation apart from the diplomatic claims: very few ships are crossing Hormuz, attacks are affecting the alternative corridor and the design of the proposed new lanes remains undisclosed. As of Monday, the sides did not offer a common account even of whether US-Iran negotiations had begun. The route talks may address the physical organization of passage, but the public descriptions do not yet connect that work to a shared negotiating calendar or a published arrangement covering the broader conflict.[2], [3]
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