Zambia’s tense count and Osun’s result put election trust to the test
Osun produced a declared winner by 66,252 votes; in Zambia, a widening lead, interrupted counting and observer criticism put the credibility of the process alongside the result itself.
Geopolitics··Evening
A declared Osun win by 66,252 votes
Nigeria’s electoral commission INEC declared incumbent governor Ademola Adeleke the winner of the Osun state governorship election held a day earlier. According to Premium Times, Adeleke, standing for the Accord Party, secured a second term with 511,067 votes. Returning officer Joshua Ogunwole said APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji took 444,815 votes and ADC candidate Najeem Salaam 17,180. Adeleke came first in 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas and Oyebamiji in 11. Valid votes totalled 985,079, rejected votes 20,721 and total votes cast 1,005,800. Adeleke was elected on the PDP ticket in 2022 before moving to the Accord Party. The margin is 66,252 votes—a clear interval drawn from the commission’s declared official set. In Osun the process presents a picture in which the winner and the vote breakdown reach the public on the same day. That clarity becomes sharper when set beside another count still unfinished on the same continent: readers are asked to weigh not only who is ahead, but how and under what conditions a result is produced.[1]
A widening lead after 49 Zambian constituencies
In Zambia the picture is still partial. According to Zambia Monitor, consolidated results from the Electoral Commission of Zambia put President Hakainde Hichilema ahead with 438,708 votes against 351,281 for his closest rival, Brian Mundubile. The count is complete in 49 of 226 constituencies, and the lead has widened to 87,427 votes. The commission released the consolidated tally after counting resumed following a nationwide pause on 14 August. In the parliamentary race Mundubile’s NRPUP took 27 seats and Hichilema’s UPND 22; Hichilema’s national lead rests on large margins in Southern and Lusaka provinces, exceeding 38,000 votes in some constituencies. With 177 constituencies still to report, the commission gave no final declaration date and no turnout figure. The partial results show Hichilema leading where counting is finished; the unfinished national tally still withholds a final winner declaration. Osun’s full declaration and Zambia’s interim total therefore present two different stages of electoral maturity at once: one closed vote breakdown and one still-open national count.[2]
Interrupted counting and observer criticism
The trust question looks past partial tallies to the process itself. According to Al Jazeera, EU chief observer Michael McNamara said the vote took place against “a backdrop of constrained democratic space”. Samuel Tembenu, who led the SADC mission, said it had received unverified reports of intimidation, assault, abduction and property damage across five provinces, including at least one death. The count was suspended on Friday after violence against polling staff and allegations of ballot theft. Nine people were arrested over the killing of a 57-year-old polling agent on election day. In the same partial results from 49 constituencies, Hichilema had 438,708 votes and Mundubile 351,281. Mundubile said the suspension raised “legitimate fears”; Mark Simuuwe, campaign director for the governing UPND, accused the opposition of panicking and called the results legitimate. Reinhold Lopatka, who led the European Parliament delegation, called the suspension disproportionate. Observer criticism does not turn every allegation into an established fact; Tembenu’s reports were left unverified. Even so, when Osun’s clear commission margin sits beside Zambia’s interrupted count and observer warnings, the agenda is no longer only who leads, but how the credibility of the ballot process is protected.[2], [3], [1]
