Two lanes and a term of 60 days
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, described the arrangement mediated by Oman as very close, and its shape is now concrete enough to read: inbound ships would use northern Iranian waters, outbound ships southern Omani waters, and the interim term would run 60 days with the possibility of an extension. What that produces is a traffic scheme with coordinates and a clock. The decision to open the strait sits elsewhere: Araghchi tied a full reopening to Washington honouring the commitments in the memorandum of 17 June.[1]
A second Iranian authority then described the same decision in its own terms. Hossein Mohebbi, spokesman for the Revolutionary Guard, said the reopening has its own specific mechanism, stands apart from the talks with Oman, and that the United States would meet conditions set by Tehran. Hassan Qashqavi, spokesman for parliament's national security commission, confirmed the framework and referred its approval to higher levels. Three Iranian institutions are speaking here, and only one of them sits at the negotiating table in Muscat.[1]
The test in the water
On the same Saturday, the UAE foreign ministry said a missile struck an ADNOC tanker in the early morning as it transited the strait, described the attack as an act of piracy by the Revolutionary Guard, and called on Tehran to reopen the waterway unconditionally. ADNOC put the running total at 15 vessels attacked since the conflict began, with one crew member killed and 20 injured. Set beside the arrangement, the strike marks the same gap. The Emirati attribution to the Revolutionary Guard is one party's claim, and Al Jazeera reports no independent verification of it; even so, a ship was hit while the lanes were being agreed, and what decides whether a hull crosses is what happens in the water.[2], [1]
The conditions Tehran has published, reported by Al Jazeera, make the same point from the other side. They ask for the naval blockade on Iran's southern ports to be lifted, US military assets to leave the region, frozen Iranian funds to be released and Israeli attacks on Lebanon to stop. Each of these sits outside the shipping lanes, and each sits outside what Oman can settle. The arrangement can be completed in Muscat while all of them stay open, and traffic through the strait that carries about 20 per cent of the world's oil in peacetime would remain as disrupted as it has been since 28 February.[1]
What would show the arrangement binding?
This column earlier argued that the route talks with Oman were the only live text and that the text contained no authority to certify the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the days since, that gap has acquired a name and a spokesman. The separate mechanism the Revolutionary Guard describes through Hossein Mohebbi is the counterpart of the missing certifier, and Hassan Qashqavi placed the approval a level above the negotiating table.[3], [1]
That gives a measurable test. If the arrangement is signed and the 60-day interim begins, the question becomes whether commercial traffic through the strait recovers within that period without another strike on a vessel such as the ADNOC tanker hit on Saturday. Steady transits would show the Revolutionary Guard's mechanism running in step with the foreign ministry's text. A further strike inside the term would show the two tracks operating independently, and would leave the lanes as a chart rather than a permission.[1], [2]