Two Rivals, One Photograph
On one pan, Rubio and Wang Yi discussed managing 'great differences' and Xi's September visit; on the other sit the Philippine sailor injured at Second Thomas Shoal and the financing raised for Manila. A summit must be read for what it does not say as much as for what it does: the parties are not resolving the problem, they are managing it.[1]
A summit produces a photograph and a communiqué; whether it produced a balance is next quarter's question. The wish to make Xi's visit 'positive' is a frame that defers conflict; a flawed table beats no table, but by itself it is not equilibrium.[1]
Talk and Strike at Once
At the same table, Rubio said the US was 'open to constructive negotiations' with Iran but that Tehran was 'not serious'; as he said 'if they're serious, we're serious,' the US was striking on an eleventh night. The diplomatic pan is held open while the military pan is filled every night. Rubio argues Iran has 'no right' to police Hormuz.[2]
In yesterday's column, 'A Commander Out, a Premier In,' I said every equilibrium is one summit away from tipping; here Washington keeps the diplomatic pan open while loading the military one. The forecast: an off-ramp works only if a credible mediator can hold the table. Watch whether ASEAN or a Gulf broker can convert Rubio's conditional into a channel before the night-count makes any table too costly to sit at.[2], [3]