The munitions spent
The figures are gathered in Al Jazeera's compilation. Attributed to Ukraine's defence ministry, Russia used 8,300 glide bombs in July, the highest monthly total of the war. The missile count for the same month rose to 376, of which 120 were ballistic, against a previous monthly record of 288 in March.[1]
Casualty figures belong to a different category. Al Jazeera reports that Ukraine's General Staff claims the Russian army took 42,800 casualties in July; Volodymyr Zelenskyy attributes 30,272 of them to drones and puts Ukraine's own casualties at 450,000, of whom 50,000 were fatalities. These numbers come from the warring parties and are not independently verified.[1]
The ground that was measured
The number that rests on independent monitoring is smaller. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that Russia occupied 37.85 square kilometres of Ukraine in July and has lost a net 183.5 square kilometres this year. A month's munitions expenditure and the same month's territorial result meet in these two figures.[1]
Munitions measure effort; ground measures result. The angle between them widened against the attacking side in July. Another reading is available: the campaign may have shifted its weight to deep strikes and the supply line, in which case captured ground was never the intended output. In Al Jazeera's compilation, Ukraine's Security Service says it struck 14 refineries, 14 aircraft and four airfields over 40 days, and Sergei Sobyanin reports that 6,225 drones flew towards Moscow in July.[1]
What to watch
The test is simple. If August's glide-bomb and missile counts stay at July's level and ISW's monthly occupation estimate again comes in around 37.85 square kilometres, the reading that expenditure has come loose from result holds. If the area estimate rises markedly at the same munitions level, the reading fails; the number to watch is ISW's assessment for August.[1]