Why the seat fell vacant
Labour's Bev Craig was elected mayor of Greater Manchester in a result declared on 31 July. The by-election was held for the seat vacated when Andy Burnham won the Makerfield parliamentary seat in June and then moved to the party leadership and the premiership. In the first round Craig took 251,449 votes, or 47.15 per cent, and Reform UK's Sian Astley 111,928 votes, or 20.99 per cent; because no candidate reached a majority, second preferences were counted and Craig reached 309,525 against Astley's 157,178.[1]
The reason for this week's vacancy was that the office can work as a step towards national leadership. The character of an institution usually shows in how its holders use it; the part the regional executive played this time was the door it opened to Westminster rather than the powers it holds in its own region.[1]
The gap between two elections
There is a prior data point for comparison. Turnout at this election was 25 per cent; at the May 2024 election it was 32 per cent. Over the same span Reform UK's vote rose from 50,000 in 2024 to more than 157,000. Labour held the seat; the composition of the ground it held changed.[1]
The clearest disanalogy has to be set down. A single-seat by-election at the end of July does not count as the same ballot as a scheduled election in May; the season, the absence of other contests and the length of the campaign pull turnout down on their own. These two rates do not say how much of the seven-point gap comes from political disengagement and how much from the calendar.[1]
The next turn
The real question is whether a contest that goes to second preferences is the exception or the new normal. Craig stopping at 47.15 per cent in the first round means the regional executive is not comfortably assigned to a single party. If the next scheduled election in the same region also goes to second preferences, the office will have entered a period of being won by coalition.[1]