Eight energy models give widely different estimates of hydrogen use in a climate-neutral Europe. In a peer-reviewed comparison, hydrogen supplied between 1% and 14% of final energy under the net-zero assumptions for 2050, mainly in industry and synthetic fuels. The results depend on technology and policy assumptions, while hydrogen trade remains sparsely represented.
A single peer-reviewed modelling study compared hydrogen use in Europe across eight energy-system and integrated-assessment models. Under a shared net-zero scenario, hydrogen accounted for 1–14% of final energy consumption in 2050, averaging 7%. These are conditional model outputs, not measured future demand. The comparison examined both direct use and hydrogen consumed to manufacture other fuels.[1]
Industry and synthetic-fuel production were the principal destinations. Direct hydrogen use in buildings and transport was more limited, and its contribution to electricity generation was small. Production options included electrolysis and gasification of biomass, alongside natural-gas reforming both with carbon capture and without it. Their assumptions about costs, electricity prices and competing technologies differed, contributing to the spread of results.[1]
Hydrogen trade was scarcely represented in the models, an important constraint on the comparison. Some systems described individual end uses in detail while others grouped processes together. Near-term electrification was a more common result across the ensemble; substantial hydrogen expansion appeared later. The average does not remove uncertainty about infrastructure, imports or which production routes would prove competitive under actual conditions.[1]
