Aircraft measurements trace the Amazon’s carbon losses through fires
Fifteen years of aircraft observations indicate that the Amazon released more carbon than it absorbed on average, with fire losses outweighing uptake outside fires. The peer-reviewed study combines atmospheric profiles with land-use and climate information. Drought and human disturbance accompany larger losses, while estimates of ecosystem uptake remain uncertain and the measurements do not set a forest-wide collapse date.
Science··Night
Flights follow the forest’s atmospheric balance
Aircraft observations indicate that the Amazon released more carbon than it absorbed on average over fifteen years.[1], [2]
The team assembled 1,017 atmospheric profiles from four Brazilian Amazon locations between 2010 and 2024. Air-transport reconstructions extended the regional estimate beyond the flight sites. This spatial coverage comes from combining samples with atmospheric transport, not from directly measuring every part of the forest on the ground or from the air.[1]
Fire losses exceed the estimated uptake
Average net emissions were 0.32 billion tonnes of carbon a year, with uncertainty of 0.08 billion. Fire emissions averaged 0.40 billion tonnes, with uncertainty of 0.07 billion. Exchange outside fires suggested uptake of 0.08 billion tonnes, but its uncertainty of 0.12 billion includes no net uptake. These figures measure carbon mass, not carbon dioxide mass.[1]
Drought amplifies an observed human footprint
The highest annual net loss occurred in 2024. The single peer-reviewed study combines atmospheric observations with disturbance and climate information, rather than a controlled experiment on the entire Amazon. Missing flights and regional transport assumptions contribute uncertainty. Larger losses during disturbed, dry conditions do not establish a date for an inevitable forest-wide collapse.[1]
