A study of 149 announced extraction projects finds enough potential lithium capacity for low and medium demand scenarios through 2035. Higher demand leaves a gap, while conservative operating assumptions narrow the margin. The peer-reviewed material-flow model compares conditional capacity with battery needs; project delivery, refining and prices remain outside that headline result.
Battery size and chemistry change the amount of lithium required for transport and stationary storage. A peer-reviewed material-flow study compared low, medium and high demand scenarios with 149 announced extraction projects. Their potential capacity covered the low and medium scenarios through 2035, while meeting approximately 81 per cent of the high-demand case.[1]
The calculation is conditional on project openings, permits and utilization. In a sensitivity test, researchers limited operations to 90 per cent of capacity and excluded clay and geothermal projects. Global potential in 2035 fell by 17 per cent, leaving a surplus of 3 per cent over medium-scenario demand. Regions relying more heavily on emerging extraction methods were affected differently.[1]
Recycling contributed 2.5 per cent of the medium scenario’s global lithium requirement for 2035. Rapid demand growth and batteries remaining in use limited the flow of material back into supply. The model also varies sodium-ion adoption and battery sizes. Its comparison excludes price feedback, refining and parts of intermediate manufacturing, while water use and local environmental effects require separate assessment.[1]
