Global maps show arable land expanding toward tropical and dry climates between 2000 and 2020, while settlements also grew. Those climates accounted for most of the net farming increase. The peer-reviewed spatial analysis distinguishes farmland losses around developed centres from regions where cultivation and buildings expanded together into natural landscapes.
Arable land expanded toward tropical and dry climates as human settlements grew between 2000 and 2020. The peer-reviewed global mapping study published on 29 October follows changes in both land uses. It distinguishes losses around densely developed centres from expansion into less developed landscapes, giving a geographical picture of how settlement growth accompanies changes in the location of farming.[1], [2]
Researchers combined five land-cover products with national statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. One-kilometre maps describe 2000, 2010 and 2020, alongside building footprints and climate classifications. Arable land includes temporary crops, temporary pasture and fallow land; permanent woody crops such as orchards fall outside that definition. Global arable area rose 7 percent, from 12.3 million to 13.1 million square kilometres. Tropical and arid climates accounted for 83 percent of the net increase.[1]
Built-up area increased 45 percent, and 40 percent of settlement expansion overlapped spatially with arable-land decline. Parts of North America, Europe and Asia lost farmland around developed centres. In South America, Africa and Oceania, cultivation and settlement often expanded together into natural landscapes. These observational relationships do not trace every lost field to a replacement elsewhere: trade, population movement and environmental conditions also influence land allocation.[1]
