A peer-reviewed comparison of climate simulations and observations links three major twentieth-century volcanic eruptions to temporary interruptions in Arctic warming. Cooling persisted for several years after each event, while Antarctica responded more weakly. The analysis separates short volcanic influences from the continuing rise driven by greenhouse gases, with different responses across polar regions.
A peer-reviewed climate analysis examined polar temperatures after the Agung eruption in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991. Comparing observations, atmospheric reanalyses and climate experiments linked these major tropical eruptions to temporary interruptions of Arctic warming. The cooling intervals assessed were 1964–1968, 1983–1987 and 1992–1996, respectively.[1]
Eruption material reaching the stratosphere can form aerosols, small particles that change the planet’s radiation balance. Experiments separating volcanic influences from other climate forcings indicated that temperatures would have been higher during some intervals without those eruptions. The comparison estimates a volcanic contribution within a model, while ocean, ice and atmospheric processes help shape regional responses.[1]
Cooling in the Arctic exceeded the response measured in Antarctica. Researchers also examined annual averages of daily minimum and maximum temperatures separately; Arctic minimum temperatures showed a stronger response. Some aerosol peaks were underestimated against reanalysis data, complicating estimates of forcing magnitude. As the volcanic influence faded, warming resumed. The several-year episodes sit within the longer greenhouse-gas-driven warming trend and do not determine the effect or timing of the next eruption.[1]
