US building fire risk could nearly triple by mid-century
A peer-reviewed study projects rising wildfire damage to buildings across the contiguous United States as fire conditions and settlement patterns change. The West retains high absolute losses, while risk also spreads eastward. Historical damage was concentrated in a small fraction of fires. The projections assume continued development patterns without additional adaptation.
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Fire and development modelled together
A peer-reviewed reconstruction combines fire activity, settlement growth and building damage across the contiguous United States, the states outside Alaska and Hawaii. It examines changes from 1945 to 2023 and projects risk through 2060. The calculation follows both changing fire conditions and continued construction, rather than holding the building stock fixed. Its future scenarios assume existing development patterns and no additional adaptation. The Debrief’s reporting also identifies those assumptions as central to the projected rise in losses.[1], [2]
Risk extends beyond the western states
Expected annual structural losses in 2051–2060 are 1.85–3.2 times the 2011–2020 level across the climate models used. The western United States retains the largest absolute losses, while central and eastern areas also face increasing risk. The paper and The Debrief describe comparable destructiveness in eastern fires once burned area and building exposure are accounted for. In the West, 30% of census tracts with the highest projected risk also overlap with socioeconomic hardship.[1], [2]
Damage clustered in very few fires
Historical incident data show that building destruction was highly concentrated rather than evenly spread across fires. Five major fires accounted for 32% of structures damaged or destroyed during 2000–2023, a finding also highlighted by The Debrief. The study links future structural risk to the interaction of burned area, exposed development and vulnerability. Its projections describe plausible scenarios under those conditions, with uncertainty around future vegetation, fire suppression and land use; they do not locate individual future disasters.[1], [2]
