In the New York Fed's August survey the mean probability of higher unemployment reached 44.4 per cent. Median expected household spending growth rose to 5.2 per cent and expected income growth stayed at 3.0 per cent. The mean probability of missing a minimum debt payment rose to 13.2 per cent.
In the New York Fed's August Survey of Consumer Expectations, the mean probability that the unemployment rate would be higher a year from now rose to 44.4 per cent, its highest reading since April 2020. CryptoBriefing reported the same 44.4 per cent print. The mean probability of losing one's job fell to 13.8 per cent and the expected probability of finding a job after a job loss fell to 45.4 per cent.[1], [2]
Median expected household spending growth increased to 5.2 per cent and median expected household income growth stayed at 3.0 per cent. CryptoBriefing reported that one-year household spending growth expectations increased to 5.2 per cent. The survey was fielded from 3 to 31 August among roughly 1,300 households. The income expectation stayed below the spending expectation.[1], [2]
The mean probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose to 13.2 per cent. CryptoBriefing reported the same 13.2 per cent reading. The labour-market and inflation readings sit in the same release. Three-year inflation expectations fell 0.1 percentage point to 3.2 per cent, one-year expectations held at 3.6 per cent and five-year expectations at 3.0 per cent. Expected earnings growth ticked up to 2.9 per cent.[1], [2]
