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Analysis

Banxico holds at 6.50 percent and drops the line that it would stay there

The Banco de México board unanimously held the overnight rate at 6.50 percent. Headline inflation rose from 3.10 percent to 3.42 percent between early July and early September, while core inflation fell from 3.95 percent to 3.79 percent. The board still expects the 3 percent target in late 2027, and it removed the sentence that had pointed to keeping the rate unchanged.

Economics & Markets··Morning
Five officials sit at a long table in a bright stone hall beneath the Mexican flag.

A unanimous hold at 6.50 percent

In the 24 September statement the Banco de México board held the overnight interbank rate target at 6.50 percent. The decision was unanimous. Devdiscourse's account of the same Thursday meeting says the five-member board held the benchmark at 6.50 percent, as expected. The rate itself is the decision. The inflation path around it is in the bank's own statement, which is the source for the figures that follow.[1], [2]

Headline up, core down

The board said headline inflation rose from 3.10 percent to 3.42 percent between the first half of July and the first half of September, while core inflation fell from 3.95 percent to 3.79 percent over the same span. It cut the third-quarter 2026 headline forecast to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent. It still anticipates headline inflation converging to the 3 percent target in the fourth quarter of 2027. It said the balance of risks for the forecast horizon remains biased to the upside. Those comparisons are the bank's, printed in the 24 September statement.[1]

The pause sentence that came out

The board noted that the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting. It said Mexico and the United States are at different stages of the cycle, so policy would not have to react mechanically to expected adjustments in the federal funds rate. Devdiscourse reported that the new statement omitted language from the previous three statements which said the board estimated it would be appropriate to maintain the key rate at current levels. The hold and the deleted sentence are the two facts both accounts state. The inflation arithmetic stays with the bank's statement. The board held the overnight rate at 6.50 percent by a unanimous vote. Headline inflation moved from 3.10 percent to 3.42 percent between early July and early September. Core inflation moved from 3.95 percent to 3.79 percent. The board still expects the 3 percent target in late 2027 and removed the sentence that had pointed to an unchanged rate. The magnitude is a board stopped at 6.50 percent and a deleted guidance sentence, not a quarter-point move.[1], [2]

References

  1. News sourceBanco de MéxicoBanxico holds the overnight rate at 6.50 per cent↩1↩2↩3
  2. News sourceDevdiscourseBanxico holds at 6.50 percent and drops the pause guidance↩1↩2