Newly released individual voting rationales set out why all seven members of the Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy committee backed the September decision to keep rates at 14 per cent. Their concerns include fuel, food, shipping and exchange-rate pressures. Members weighed those risks against strong economic activity and wanted time to assess whether recent inflation developments would persist before changing policy.
Ghana’s central bank has released the individual voting rationales of all seven monetary policy committee members. Each supported keeping the policy rate at 14 per cent at the September meeting. The newly published documents set out the assessments behind that previously announced decision, with inflation and external risks prominent in the reasoning.[1], [2]
Members cited rising fuel and food prices, shipping costs, domestic petroleum prices and quarterly utility tariff adjustments. They saw possible pressure on imported inflation and the exchange rate. One member also raised the risk of weather disruptions linked to El Niño, the climate pattern that can alter rainfall and temperatures across regions.[1]
Supporters of the pause wanted time to assess the persistence of recent price increases and how external shocks could affect the medium-term inflation path. Some retained the expectation of a return to the 8 per cent target, with a tolerance of two percentage points on either side.[1]
The assessments also considered real economic growth of 6 per cent in the second quarter and a 14.9 per cent annual increase in July’s composite economic activity index, the country’s broad activity indicator. Business and consumer confidence remained near historical highs, and private-sector credit growth accelerated. Members also discussed payment obligations and external debt servicing, with international reserves around 12 billion dollars on 22 September.[1]
