The Bank of Russia left its policy rate at 14 percent as price pressures remained elevated. Seasonally adjusted annualised inflation accelerated in the third quarter, while corporate lending continued to grow rapidly. The bank projected inflation of 7.1–7.6 percent at year-end and retained its forecast of a return to the 4 percent target in 2027. Its next rate decision is scheduled for December 18.
The Bank of Russia, Russia’s central bank, kept its policy rate at 14 percent on October 23 as elevated price pressures and inflation expectations persisted. The decision left borrowing costs at the existing policy level.[1], [2]
The bank assessed underlying inflation at an annualised pace of 5–6 percent. It said demand growth was slowing but remained elevated, while investment was recovering after weakness at the start of the year.[1]
Seasonally adjusted annualised consumer price growth rose from 4.8 percent in the second quarter to 8 percent in the third. Core inflation on the same basis increased from 4.5 percent to 6.2 percent. Annual inflation stood at 6.8 percent on October 19. The bank forecast a year-end rate of 7.1–7.6 percent.[1]
Corporate lending expanded rapidly in the third quarter despite tighter non-price lending requirements, the bank said. Retail lending growth was moderate and households’ propensity to save remained high. The bank identified fiscal policy, supply-demand imbalances and elevated expectations as inflation risks. It forecast inflation returning to 4 percent in 2027, with an average policy rate of 12.5–13.5 percent that year. The next scheduled rate decision is December 18.[1]
