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Analysis

UK consumer confidence falls 11 points as major-purchase appetite weakens

UK consumer confidence fell 11 points to minus 24 in October, undoing a summer recovery. Views of the wider economy and willingness to make major purchases deteriorated sharply, while assessments of household finances also weakened. The GfK survey covered 2,003 people between October 1 and 14; its separate savings index rose slightly.

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A sofa arm in the foreground of a British showroom, with unbranded large household appliances deeper inside.

October reverses the summer recovery

UK consumer confidence fell 11 points to minus 24 in October from minus 13 in September. The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer showed a sharp deterioration in households’ views of the economy and major purchases.[1], [2]

GfK, the consumer research company, publishes the barometer with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions, NIM. Consumer insights director Neil Bellamy said weakness extended across income, age and gender groups. Headline confidence returned to levels seen in April, May and June.[1]

Economic expectations and major purchases weaken sharply

Expectations for the economy over the next twelve months fell 14 points to minus 36. The Major Purchase Index also declined 14 points, to minus 22. Assessments of personal finances over the past year fell 7 points to minus 10; expectations for the coming year dropped 8 points to minus 3.[1]

The separate savings measure edges higher

The Savings Index rose 1 point to plus 28; it is excluded from the headline confidence calculation. The survey covered 2,003 people aged 16 and above between October 1 and 14, with quotas for age, sex, region and social class. The estimated margin of error was plus or minus 2 percent. The major-purchase question concerns whether conditions favour buying furniture or electrical goods, rather than measuring completed purchases.[1]

References

  1. News sourceGfK / NIQUK consumer confidence drops 11 points↩1↩2↩3↩4
  2. News sourceRetail GazetteUK consumer confidence falls 11 points to minus 24↩