The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate at 1% on 28 October, with attending committee members voting unanimously. The central bank expects growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Technology exports and investment support activity, while household debt, weak purchasing power and contracting small-business credit constrain the recovery.
The Bank of Thailand held its policy interest rate at 1% on 28 October. All members attending the Monetary Policy Committee meeting supported the decision; one member was absent. The central bank described domestic demand as weak and the recovery as uneven, with growth below potential. Household debt and labour-market weakness continued to weigh on private consumption.[1], [2]
The bank projects economic growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Exports linked to technology and artificial intelligence investment support activity, although gains are concentrated in associated industries. Headline inflation is forecast at 2.1% and 1.3% respectively. The committee identified energy prices and El Niño as temporary cost pressures; core inflation forecasts were 1.2% and 1.3%.[1]
Lending to small and medium-sized enterprises is contracting, while large companies borrow more for working capital and investment. Private-sector borrowing costs remain broadly stable. The bank said it would continue monitoring vulnerable borrowers’ access to finance and repayment capacity. It also expects higher oil prices to reduce foreign tourist arrivals, alongside their effects on consumer prices.[1]
