A more than 95 per cent vote for 10 September 2026
Joachim Nagel, in a Le Monde interview published by Deutsche Bundesbank on 2 September 2026, said markets are pricing a more than 95 per cent probability of a rate increase at the European Central Bank meeting on 10 September 2026, and that the markets understand how the bank is likely to respond quite well at this point. Inflation, he said, stands at around 3 per cent rather than the 2 per cent medium-term target, and the June projections have inflation returning to 2 per cent over the medium term only under the assumption of higher interest rates. He was cautious about giving any indication of what comes next beyond that September meeting, and said the meeting-by-meeting approach has served the bank well. The 95 per cent probability attaches to 10 September 2026; the interview left the path after that date unfilled.[1]
Nagel said that in Germany, based on the first two quarters, the economy is on track for roughly 1 per cent growth this year, quite a bit better than the June forecast, and that second-quarter growth in Germany and in the euro area as a whole turned out stronger than expected. He said market participants are now demanding higher yields globally as they are confronted with a lot of uncertainty, and that oil and gas prices keep going up and down while financial markets are very volatile. The European Central Bank Governing Council, he said, takes these developments into account. The 95 per cent probability on 10 September 2026 therefore sits beside a growth figure Nagel put at roughly 1 per cent and beside a yield bid he described together with that uncertainty.[1]
A 3.3 per cent headline with energy at 14.3 per cent
Eurostat's flash estimate puts euro area annual inflation at 3.3 per cent in August 2026, up from 2.9 per cent in July, with a 0.4 per cent rise on the month. Energy is expected to show the highest annual rate at 14.3 per cent, compared with 10.3 per cent in July. Services eased to 3.0 per cent from 3.3 per cent. Non-energy industrial goods rose to 1.2 per cent from 0.9 per cent. Food, alcohol and tobacco stayed at 1.2 per cent. All-items excluding energy is expected at 2.2 per cent in August, the same 2.2 per cent as in July. The 3.3 per cent headline therefore sits next to a 14.3 per cent energy line and a 3.0 per cent services line in the same basket.[2]
Among member states in the Eurostat table, Lithuania recorded 5.8 per cent, Cyprus 5.2 per cent and Spain 4.5 per cent, while Estonia was lowest at 1.3 per cent and Malta next at 1.9 per cent. The European Central Bank targets 2 per cent over the medium term. Eurostat scheduled the next release with full data for August 2026 for 17 September 2026. The 10 September 2026 meeting therefore sits on the same calendar as a flash in which energy at 14.3 per cent is the top annual rate, and the full table arrives a week after that meeting.[2]
The 3.80 per cent composite is still July's cost
The European Central Bank said the composite cost-of-borrowing indicator for new loans to euro area corporations was broadly unchanged at 3.80 per cent in July 2026, and the equivalent indicator for new loans to households for house purchase was broadly unchanged at 3.54 per cent. Corporate deposits with an agreed maturity rose 5 basis points to 2.26 per cent and household deposits with an agreed maturity rose 5 basis points to 2.14 per cent. Overnight corporate deposits were broadly unchanged at 0.60 per cent and overnight household deposits were unchanged at 0.28 per cent. Inside that 3.80 per cent composite, new loans of over 1 million euros with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation of up to three months decreased by 7 basis points to 3.49 per cent, on 169.40 billion euros of new business. Loans of the same size with fixation of over three months and up to one year rose 17 basis points to 3.84 per cent, on 41.66 billion euros.[3]
The 95 per cent Nagel read for 10 September 2026, Eurostat's 3.3 per cent August flash with energy at 14.3 per cent and services at 3.0 per cent, and the 3.80 per cent July composite sit on the same European Central Bank calendar. The large 169.40 billion euro floating-rate line printed 3.49 per cent, 7 basis points lower; the smaller 41.66 billion euro fixation line printed 3.84 per cent, 17 basis points higher, and the unchanged 3.80 per cent average carries that split inside it. One reading is that the 95 per cent already sits in the 3.84 per cent line and that the 3.49 per cent line is still July's floating-rate book. Another is that the 7 basis point decline and the 17 basis point increase are a mix shift in July volumes. If the 10 September 2026 meeting raises rates, the next readable loan tape is whether the 3.80 per cent corporate composite moves in the bank interest-rate statistics covering a month after that meeting, and whether 3.84 per cent stays above 3.49 per cent.[1], [2], [3]