Counting the barrels in days
India's existing strategic reserve holds 5.33 million tonnes, enough to cover roughly 8 to 9 days of net oil demand. The International Energy Agency's benchmark for member countries is 90 days of emergency stocks. The gap is a question of order of magnitude rather than of percentages, and the 1.75 million tonne facility ONGC plans at Mangalore closes only a small part of it.[1]
South Africa's picture is similar. The country's crude reserves currently stand at 8 million barrels, while a draft policy envisages a 60-day state reserve of about 36 million barrels under the South African National Petroleum Company. The same draft would require licensed distributors to hold 14 to 21 days of commercial stocks.[1]
Announced capacity is not stored barrels
Between announcing a storage facility and putting barrels into it lie two separate delays: construction time and the purchases needed to fill it. The second is more expensive when prices are high, because a buyer building stocks adds demand to an already tight market. Building reserves therefore does not lower the price; in the short run it pushes it up.[1]
An alternative explanation is that both countries made the announcement for effect rather than for physical stock; neither the draft policy nor the facility plan contains a binding purchase programme. On that reading the barrel count stays unchanged for years. The documents at hand do not show a filling schedule, so both possibilities remain open.[1]
Which number would confirm it
The magnitude to watch is coverage in days, not the number of facilities. If India's 8 to 9 days of cover starts to move up, the programme is working physically. Unless South Africa's 8 million barrels moves toward 36 million barrels, the 60-day target remains a policy document.[1]