More people filed
The US Department of Labor release dated 24 September put seasonally adjusted initial claims at 197,000 for the week ending 19 September. The decline was 1,000. The previous week was revised up by 2,000, from 196,000 to 198,000. The four-week average fell by 1,750 to 202,250.[1]
In the same release, unadjusted initial claims rose by 10,243 to 163,811. The increase was 6.7 per cent. The seasonal factor had expected an increase of 10,475, or 6.8 per cent. A year earlier the comparable week had 180,992 filings.[1]
People still drawing benefits
In the week ending 12 September, seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rose by 2,000 to 1,719,000. The rate stayed at 1.1 per cent. The previous week was revised down by 13,000, from 1,730,000 to 1,717,000. The four-week average fell by 13,000 to 1,744,000.[1]
In the week ending 5 September the highest insured unemployment rates were 2.3 per cent in New Jersey, 1.9 per cent in Massachusetts, 1.9 per cent in Puerto Rico and 1.8 per cent in Washington. In the week ending 12 September the largest rise in initial claims was 1,041 in Kentucky, and the largest drop was 4,809 in California.[1]
The arithmetic of the headline
The adjusted decline of 1,000 does not mean 10,243 fewer people walked in. The factor had already expected an unadjusted rise of 10,475. The actual rise came in 232 below that, and the adjusted series fell.[1]
The 2.3 per cent rate in New Jersey and the rise of 1,041 in Kentucky are not the same household picture as the drop of 4,809 in California. The Kentucky increase could also come from one plant's shift calendar; the release does not separate that.[1]