Waiting for a new paycheck
US employers added a net 29,000 jobs in September, with revisions removing 60,000 from the combined July and August estimates. The burden of that weakness differs for someone receiving a paycheck and someone seeking one. NPR describes thin hiring across most industries rather than a large wave of layoffs. For a worker who keeps a job, a slow labor market can initially look like an ordinary working day. For someone who needs a new paycheck, the wait can become harder.[1]
Wells Fargo economist Sarah House identifies concrete groups: people who lose their jobs, first-time entrants and those returning after an absence. Low turnover leaves them competing for a small flow of openings. The income channel is straightforward: a current job can keep producing wages while income dependent on finding a new job waits for an employer’s hiring decision. Beneath the same employment total sit workers preserving an income and people trying to obtain one.[1]
The value of another job
Thin hiring can also matter to people who already have work. If another job becomes harder to find, the option of leaving low pay or poor conditions weakens. That is a bargaining-power mechanism; September’s data do not establish that every worker’s wage fell for that reason. Employers having fewer vacancies to fill could also be consistent with low turnover. For someone needing to change jobs, however, the availability of the next position matters alongside the absence of mass layoffs.[1]
Annual average wage growth slowed to 3% in September. That average alone cannot tell us the raise received by a low-paid worker or the income lost by someone without work. A person without a job has no wage in the average for employed workers. Changes in the mix of workers can affect that average too. The wage indicator for people still receiving pay therefore needs to be considered separately from the hiring problem of those trying to obtain it.[1]
Security includes regaining wages
The absence of widespread layoffs provides real protection for people who keep their jobs. That benefit deserves recognition. A job seeker’s budget, however, needs a new wage income. NPR’s interview describes consumer spending growing faster than personal income and some people borrowing to bridge the gap between rising prices and wage income. Credit-dependent spending can be more exposed to rising borrowing costs. A person seeking a new job could face similar pressure if they need to borrow to meet expenses while waiting. Adequate savings or other household income could reduce that need.[1]
I would assess relief in the labor market through more than workers retaining their existing jobs. Security also includes a displaced worker, a first-time entrant or a person returning after caregiving or another absence being able to regain wages. Stronger hiring could widen access for those groups; faster average wage growth alone does not perform the same function. September exposes that distinction: continuation of an existing paycheck and access to a new one meet different needs and carry different economic consequences.[1]