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Analysis

Sudan's army places dialogue preparations beside battlefield claims

Al-Burhan's unannounced national-dialogue meetings and claims of gains in West Darfur show the army trying to shape a political process while fighting continues.

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Anonymous participants confer around irregular tables in a sunlit, modest hall; two people enter in the foreground while several empty chairs sit at right.

An unannounced meeting to prepare dialogue

Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan held an unannounced meeting with leaders of political blocs, chiefs of native administration, heads of Sufi orders, independent figures, academics and resistance committees, according to his advisers. The gathering considered how to prepare a national-dialogue conference. Participants agreed to suspend criminal charges carrying the death penalty against opposition leaders and halt negative media campaigns. A proposed preparatory committee would consist of independent, widely accepted figures with specialist expertise. It would determine participation, the agenda, venue and date and invite international and regional observers. This framework opens the proposed process to several political and social constituencies while defining its limits from the outset. Al-Burhan said the National Congress Party and Tasis, a political group aligned with the Rapid Support Forces, would not participate. The meeting therefore offers procedural preparations for a dialogue whose location and schedule have not yet been set, but it also allows the army-led side to identify at this early stage which actors would remain outside the table.[1]

Claims of gains in West Darfur

As political preparations proceed, Sudan's army and its allies are claiming gains against the Rapid Support Forces in West Darfur. Al Jazeera reported accounts that 2 successive RSF assaults were repelled in the Bir Saliba area north of el-Geneina in early August. The Joint Force said 38 combat vehicles were destroyed and 27 captured; those figures have not been independently verified. Regional governor Minni Arko Minnawi said the RSF had relied on surprise but that its encirclement attempt failed. A Joint Force spokesman and the governor of West Darfur also gave accounts of the fighting, and an RSF field commander was reported killed. The statements present the position of the army's allies as stronger on the ground, while displacement data record the humanitarian consequences of the fighting. Al Jazeera said the clashes displaced 6,650 people from 11 villages; since April 2023, the number displaced across Sudan is more than 13 million people. Claims of gains and displacement data together describe fighting that is proceeding at the same time as the political initiative.[2]

The table is being framed while the war continues

Read together, the two developments show an army leadership trying to shape politics and the battlefield during the same period. The dialogue initiative includes steps that could reduce tension, such as suspending charges carrying the death penalty and ending negative media campaigns; its participation rules exclude a political group aligned with the RSF. The reports from West Darfur show the army and its allies building a simultaneous narrative of military advantage. This timing brings the search for accommodation at a national-dialogue conference together with an effort to determine who will shape a political order while the balance of force is still contested. The vehicle and casualty claims from Bir Saliba have not been independently verified, so the military picture cannot be treated as settled. Continuing displacement also shows that the conflict's effects on civilians persist during the political preparations. Sudan's current picture places a dialogue whose scope is being opened in a controlled way alongside a war continuing through claims of battlefield gains. The army is pursuing both tracks during the same political period; the dialogue framework defines political participation, while battlefield statements define a claim of military position.[1], [2]

References

  1. News sourceAl JazeeraSudan's army chief holds unannounced talks on a national dialogue conference↩1↩2
  2. News sourceAl JazeeraSudan's army and its allies say they repelled two RSF assaults at Bir Saliba↩1↩2