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Analysis

AfD tops 44% in Saxony-Anhalt as its path to power hinges on the threshold

Initial projections put the AfD above 44% in Saxony-Anhalt and the CDU on 18.4%, with estimated turnout at 78%. Despite its commanding lead, whether the AfD secures an outright majority and forms the state government depends on which smaller parties clear the 5% threshold. No far-right party has governed a German state since World War II.

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In a brightly lit Saxony-Anhalt counting hall, six rear-view election workers sort irregular clusters of paper ballots on wooden tables beneath German and state flags.

AfD takes a commanding lead

Initial projections in Saxony-Anhalt put the AfD above 44%, with the CDU a distant second on 18.4% and estimated turnout at 78%. Polling before the vote had placed the AfD at about 40%. The exit-poll picture gave the party a commanding lead, although the final distribution of seats had not yet been settled. AfD leader Ulrich Siegmund said the party had made history in the state.[1], [3]

Smaller parties will determine the majority

Finishing first does not by itself put the AfD in government. Its state leader, Ulrich Siegmund, has said he will not govern with another party, while mainstream parties reject cooperation with the AfD. The outright-majority calculation therefore depends on which smaller parties cross the 5% threshold and how the remaining vote translates into seats.[2], [3]

The CDU concedes defeat

CDU state premier Sven Schulze conceded defeat and described the campaign as extremely difficult. If the AfD falls short of a majority, the CDU could try to assemble a government with smaller parties. No far-right party has governed a German state since World War II; state governments exercise direct authority over policing, local education and culture. Saxony-Anhalt has about 2.1 million residents.[1], [2]

References

  1. News sourceBBC NewsAfD heads for more than 44 per cent in Saxony-Anhalt as the CDU falls to 18.4 per cent↩1↩2
  2. News sourceAP NewsSaxony-Anhalt votes as the AfD's path to power turns on an outright majority↩1↩2
  3. News sourceAl JazeeraSaxony-Anhalt votes with the AfD on 40 per cent and a first state government in reach↩1↩2