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Analysis

Paris weighs a force to follow UNIFIL if the UN leaves in January

Al Jazeera says Emmanuel Macron received Lebanese president Joseph Aoun at the Élysée, with Jordan's King Abdullah in the talks, to discuss a non-UN or EU-led successor if UNIFIL's roughly 7,500-strong mission ends in January. Al-Monitor, in a Reuters-dated report, says European and Arab military chiefs were due in Paris the same day on army needs and the drawdown. Aoun told AFP that extending UNIFIL remains the best option.

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A dark unbranded official saloon with its rear door open in the pale-stone Élysée courtyard as an anonymous security figure watches, beneath French, Lebanese and Jordanian flags.

Macron, Aoun and Abdullah open the room

Al Jazeera says Thursday's talks opened under Macron, Aoun and King Abdullah, with the United States represented by a senior military official. Al-Monitor, in a Reuters-dated report, says the same opening is to be chaired by Macron with Aoun and Abdullah, and that European and Arab military chiefs would meet in Paris on Lebanese army needs as UNIFIL starts drawing down from January. UNIFIL has about 7,500 personnel in the Al-Monitor account as well. The January start of the drawdown is the clock both reports share. A successor force is still a plan, not a mandated mission.[1], [2]

A non-UN or EU-led successor is on the table

Al-Monitor says officials in Paris are discussing a non-UN mission backed by France and Italy, or an EU-led training and equipment mission. A French presidency official said Lebanese requests still do not match US demands at the Security Council and that the mandate is undefined. Aoun told AFP that extending UNIFIL remains the best option. Euronews, cited there, placed the talks in the Aqaba Process. Lebanese requests, the French official said, still do not match US demands at the Security Council. Extending the current UN mandate remains Aoun's stated preference, against a room that is already sketching replacements.[2]

The January clock, and who will not extend

Al Jazeera, citing AFP and Reuters, puts UNIFIL at almost fifty years and about 7,500 strong, due to leave in January. Lebanon and France favour an extension; neither the United States nor Israel has signalled support for prolonging it. France 24, in that report, said Paris wants a clear plan of funding, equipment and training. France and Italy appear as backers of a non-UN option in both write-ups. The United States sits in the room through a senior military official in Al Jazeera's account, without a public yes on an extension.[1]

References

  1. News sourceAl JazeeraMacron hosts Aoun in Paris over a force to follow UNIFIL↩1↩2
  2. News sourceAl-MonitorMacron hosted Aoun and Abdullah in Paris on a post-UNIFIL force↩1↩2