Strikes on Iranian tankers lift Brent above 99 dollars
Brent crude rose above 99 dollars a barrel on Tuesday after US forces struck Iran-linked tankers near Kharg Island and Jask. The attacks added pressure to shipping flows that were already severely reduced through the Strait of Hormuz. The market's next direction remains tied to the duration of the physical disruption and further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.
Economics & Markets··Morning
The new strikes behind the price move
Brent crude climbed as high as 99.46 dollars a barrel on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate gained more than 2.7 per cent to above 94 dollars. The move followed the US military's announcement that its forces had struck five Iran-linked tankers. AP News reported that four were hit in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island, Iran's main crude-export hub. NBC News also reported Iranian state-media accounts of explosions around Kharg. The immediate development beside the price move was therefore a direct attack on vessels carrying energy flows.[1], [2]
The squeeze through Hormuz
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was already close to a standstill before Tuesday's attacks: NBC News reported that four ships passed on Saturday and six on Sunday. Before the war, the waterway carried more than 20 per cent of global energy supply. Those two facts show that the price was reacting within a market where physical passage was already severely constrained, rather than to an isolated headline alone. Three other Iranian tankers had been hit on Saturday, making Tuesday's strikes part of pressure spread across several days.[1]
Two thresholds for the market
Brent's move above 99 dollars brought the 100 dollars-a-barrel threshold back into view, but a one-day rise cannot establish how long flows will remain disrupted. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that Brent might exceed 120 dollars if Gulf flows stay low, while HSBC analysts kept a base case near 95 dollars through year-end. The range shows that the forecasts depend less on the existence of one strike than on the duration of the flow constraint. Two concrete indicators now matter: the number of ships passing through Hormuz and any further attacks around Kharg or other Gulf energy infrastructure.[1]
