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Analysis

Warsh's FOMC lifts the funds rate to 3.75-4 percent

The Federal Reserve 16 September statement, on a 12-0 vote, raised the federal funds target by a quarter point to a 3.75-4 percent range and said inflation remains elevated. A 19 September TIME essay by Roger Ferguson and Maximilian Hippold frames that as Kevin Warsh's third FOMC meeting and the first hike since 2023, after stronger August jobs numbers. Trump attacked the hike on social media. TIME also describes five Warsh task forces and a proposal for six FOMC meetings each year rather than eight.

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Text-free editorial illustration from behind Kevin Warsh's right shoulder as he addresses a blurred Federal Reserve meeting room, with a US flag on a pole beside him.

A 12-0 quarter-point rise to 3.75-4 percent

The Federal Open Market Committee 16 September release, on a 12-0 vote, said it raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75-4 percent. TIME's 19 September essay matches that 3.75-4 percent band and calls the vote unanimous at Warsh's third FOMC meeting, the first increase since 2023 after August jobs figures came in stronger than analysts expected. The Fed text itself does not name Warsh or the jobs print.[2], [1]

Inflation still high; Trump wants cuts

The Fed statement said inflation remains elevated and that the move would support a timelier return to the 2 percent goal, with activity expanding at a solid pace, domestic spending resilient, productivity strong and unemployment little changed. TIME adds that inflation has run above 2 percent for more than five and a half years and quotes Warsh saying inflation is too high and has been for too long. It also records Trump attacking the undivided hike on social media and telling reporters the board was hostile and political.[2], [1]

Task forces, less forward guidance, six meetings

TIME says Warsh launched five task forces in his first month on communications, the balance sheet, data, productivity and jobs, and the inflation framework, with outside experts due to report this fall. He has already shortened press material and wants less long-horizon forward guidance. The essay says he has proposed cutting the yearly FOMC calendar from eight meetings to six, which would be the first such change since the 1980s. None of that reform list appears in the 16 September rate statement.[1]

References

  1. News sourceTIMEWarsh's third FOMC meeting lifts the funds rate to 3.75–4 percent↩1↩2↩3
  2. News sourceFederal ReserveFOMC raises the federal funds range by a quarter point to 3.75–4 percent↩1↩2