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Analysis

A second energy wave holds inflation up into 2027

Philip Lane told Le Temps that a second wave of oil and gas prices leaves inflation higher for longer, with a turn back toward the target from the middle of 2027. Bloomberg's headline states the same expectation: a new energy shock means longer inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist said pass-through into services prices has not appeared since February. He added that a more persistent shock this autumn would be felt by the European economy.

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Higher for longer, then a turn in 2027

Philip Lane told Le Temps that a second wave of oil and gas prices leaves inflation higher for longer, with a turn back toward the target from the middle of 2027. Bloomberg reports the same judgment in its headline: a new energy shock means longer inflation. The European Central Bank's chief economist is describing a path, not a new interest-rate decision.[1], [2]

Services have not picked it up since February

Lane said pass-through into services prices has not appeared since February, the ECB interview records. That gap matters because a goods shock that never reaches services is a different inflation problem from one that does. He was speaking as chief economist, in an interview with Le Temps, not at a policy meeting.[1]

A stickier autumn would hit Europe

Lane added that a more persistent shock this autumn would be felt by the European economy. Bloomberg's headline stops at the longer inflation. The autumn warning, and the mid-2027 turn, are in the ECB's own interview.[1], [2]

References

  1. News sourceEuropean Central BankA second energy wave leaves inflation higher into the middle of 2027↩1↩2↩3
  2. News sourceBloombergA new energy shock means longer inflation, Lane expects↩1↩2