UNCTAD finds fewer new projects despite higher global investment
UNCTAD’s new monitor puts global foreign direct investment 37 percent above the average half-year level of 2025 for the first half of 2026. Yet announcements of new projects fell 15 percent, and projects tied to development goals in poorer countries declined by more than a quarter. The split shows why larger financial flows alone do not measure how broadly new productive investment is spreading.
Economics & Markets··Morning
Higher flows, fewer new projects
UN Trade and Development, known as UNCTAD, reports that foreign direct investment rose in the first half of 2026 while announcements for new projects declined. The first-half flow was 37 percent above the average half-year level in 2025. The Guardian Nigeria independently reported the same central contrast: higher total investment but fewer projects in sectors important to developing economies.[1], [2]
The 37 percent increase is measured against the 2025 average half-year level, rather than the first half of that year alone. UNCTAD says flows to developed economies rose by more than 70 percent against that same baseline, helped by shifts in financial flows through Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg and by much larger inflows to the United States. Large entries can therefore lift the total without a comparable rise in the number of projects.[1]
Developing economies face a wider gap
Announced new facilities or operations, often called greenfield projects, fell 15 percent worldwide. International project-finance deals declined 11 percent, and the number of cross-border merger and acquisition deals fell 23 percent. Yet the value of cross-border acquisitions rose 57 percent to 494 billion dollars during the first nine months. The value and the count refer to different measures and periods.[1]
Developing economies received 8 percent more direct investment in the first half than the 2025 half-year average. Their new-project announcements nevertheless fell by more than a fifth. Projects connected with sustainable development goals, including essential infrastructure and services, declined by more than 25 percent in early 2026 estimates. The Guardian Nigeria highlighted this fall in its reporting on the new monitor.[1], [2]
Large transactions drive the headline total
UNCTAD also found renewable-energy project finance activity down by about one-third in developing economies, compared with a 4 percent decline in developed ones. Announced new data-centre investment in developing economies fell by 32 billion dollars. These are measures of plans and financing activity, rather than completed construction or the final amount of capital spent on facilities.[1]
Geopolitical tension, expensive borrowing and energy prices remain pressures on new investment commitments, according to UNCTAD. In West Asia, new-project announcements fell 52 percent. Gulf investors’ outward project-finance investment more than halved in the second quarter against both a year earlier and the prior five-year average. Domestic Gulf project-finance investment more than tripled, with most of the rise coming from one nearly 55 billion dollar Dubai project.[1]
