The half-year tonnage
According to the Turkish Steel Producers Association (TÇÜD), January to June crude steel output rose 8.1 percent to 19.8 million tonnes and June output rose 14.7 percent to 3.3 million tonnes. Final product consumption rose 6.6 percent to 19.9 million tonnes in the first half and 0.4 percent to 3.1 million tonnes in June.[1]
Exports rose 2.5 percent by volume to 7.8 million tonnes and 1.3 percent by value to 5.3 billion dollars in the first half. Imports rose 0.3 percent by volume to 9.3 million tonnes and fell 2.4 percent by value to 6.3 billion dollars. Average unit values calculated from the published figures sit very close together: about 679 dollars a tonne for exports and about 677 dollars a tonne for imports. That closeness does not mean the two baskets hold the same products; differences in grade, thickness and product group can produce the same average. The ratio of exports to imports rose from 80 percent to 83 percent.[1]
June says something different
In June exports rose 28.4 percent by volume and 29.7 percent by value, while imports fell 0.8 percent by volume and rose 3.7 percent by value. With domestic consumption up only 0.4 percent in the same month, export tonnage rising on that scale points to the extra output being directed abroad. A loading schedule can produce the same tonnage: when a vessel's loading slips forward or back, a single month's figure swells, and monthly customs data do not show the order date.[1]
On the binding constraint, the association's general secretary Veysel Yayan called for long-term, low-cost financing, stronger Eximbank support and easier access to investment credit. The constraint as described is sought in the cost of finance and not on the ore or scrap side, which means that using capacity depends on working capital. The signal to watch is clear: whether import tonnage starts falling in the July, August and September data and whether the coverage ratio holds above 83 percent.[1]