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Analysis

OPEC+ holds output as Europe turns to an India diesel route

Seven OPEC+ countries kept their required October production at September's level. In physical fuel flows, India now supplies 60 per cent of the diesel crossing Bab el-Mandeb toward Europe. Vortexa data show Russia's seaborne diesel and gasoil exports fell sharply in August, leaving Indian cargoes as one of the main sources filling Europe's gap.

Economics & Markets··Evening
A large diesel tanker heads toward Europe through the sunlit Bab el-Mandeb strait as varied commercial ships travel in the distance.

October production level stays unchanged

Seven OPEC+ countries reviewed global market conditions and the outlook, then decided to carry September's required production level into October. They repeated their commitment to full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation and said monthly reviews of market conditions would continue. The statement left the quota unchanged and contained no new decision on refinery operations or the routes taken by physically delivered fuel.[1], [2]

India moves to the front of the Europe route

Indian refiners supply 60 per cent of the diesel crossing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait toward Europe, according to Vortexa data. India has become the main supplier on this route as flows from Russia and the United States decline. The country is the world's fourth-largest refiner, with installed capacity of 258.1 million tonnes a year, and exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products in the 2025-26 fiscal year.[1], [2]

Russia's seaborne exports fall

Russia's seaborne diesel and gasoil exports averaged about 150,000 barrels a day in the first 25 days of August. That was 610,000 barrels a day below a year earlier and 81 per cent under the five-year seasonal average. A total of 32 attacks on Russian refineries were recorded in July and August. No diesel has loaded at Tuapse since May, although the Black Sea carried 44 per cent of Russia's diesel and gasoil exports last year.[1], [2]

References

  1. News sourceOPECOPEC+ seven leave October output at the September level↩1↩2↩3
  2. News sourceThe Hindu businesslineIndian refiners supply 60 per cent of the diesel crossing Bab el-Mandeb to Europe↩1↩2↩3