The head of the chain: a new vessel

Petrobras lifted its own oil output in Brazil to 2.7 million barrels a day in the second quarter, 15 per cent above the same quarter of 2025. Total oil and gas production set a record at 3.34 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, and operated pre-salt output set one at 2.78 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. Operated production at the Búzios field rose to 1.219 million barrels a day after the P-79 floating production vessel started up.[1]

That volume moved in two directions. The refinery utilisation factor averaged 101.2 per cent across the quarter and 102.5 per cent in April and May, and refined-product output rose 5.6 per cent from the previous quarter to 1.918 million barrels a day. Most of the remaining crude went abroad, with exports approaching 1 million barrels a day over the quarter.[1]

Where did 40 per cent of the imports go?

The 40 per cent drop in product imports is the visible outcome of that chain. With refineries running above nameplate and product output up 5.6 per cent, domestic requirements were met at home, and locally produced gasoline and diesel displaced the imported barrels. The chain runs one way: the additional barrels from the field filled the refineries first and then turned toward export.[1]

Weaker domestic demand could have produced the same result. A utilisation factor of 102.5 per cent in April and May sits awkwardly with a quarter of falling domestic demand, and because the release carries no demand series the distinction is not closed by the published figures. The maintenance calendar offers another reading: a quarter in which refineries were not taken down for turnarounds makes running above nameplate easier on its own.[1]

The constraint that binds first

A figure of 101.2 per cent is pressed against a physical ceiling. If the production side keeps growing with new vessels, the only place additional barrels can go is export, because there is little room left on the refining side. The signal to watch is whether the utilisation factor stays above 100 per cent in the next quarter, when turnarounds usually land. If it falls back while production keeps rising, the export figure moves clearly above 1 million barrels a day.[1]