What the tape actually printed
On 25 September the 10-year Treasury yield slipped 3 basis points to 5.17 per cent, paring a two-day surge of more than 20 basis points. Brent crude fell below 105 dollars a barrel. S&P 500 futures rose 0.4 per cent. Swaps fully priced 3 more Federal Reserve quarter-point hikes over the next 1 year. Mohit Kumar at Jefferies wrote that oil prices are driving rates.[1]
Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed average hit 7.45 per cent on 24 September, 19 basis points above the prior day's 7.26 per cent. The survey was rerun after the 10-year yield moved higher in the afternoon. A weekly average had only just crossed 7 per cent. Matthew Graham counted Federal Reserve comments, oil and stronger data for the morning, and saw no obvious catalyst for the afternoon selling.[2]
Oil and an unnamed sale
Mortgage rates follow the 10-year yield, so the 19 basis point jump and the two-day surge of more than 20 basis points sit on one channel. The same session also gave 3 basis points back, and Brent fell below 105 dollars a barrel. Graham saw no obvious catalyst for the afternoon. Kumar put oil in front. Both readings stay available: the mortgage jump may have priced the oil easing late, or the afternoon sale is a liquidity gap the morning accounts do not cover.[1], [2]
The 24 September column read that morning's 10-year yield together with the auction and the PMI. The 25 September print at 5.17 per cent is a 3 basis point giveback after a surge of more than 20 basis points. The observation that separates a durable repricing from an afternoon gap is the 10-year yield remaining near 5.17 per cent and the daily mortgage average remaining near 7.45 per cent.[1], [3]