What the guidance actually prices
ADNOC Gas closed the second quarter with net income of 665 million dollars, above the range it had given, in a period when disruption in the Strait of Hormuz kept restricting product liftings. Gas supply from Habshan, knocked out by security incidents on 3 April and 8 April, was back to 85 per cent by the time the company reported. The plant recovered; the water in front of it did not.[1]
The company then wrote the strait into its own arithmetic. Third-quarter net income is guided at 600 million dollars to 800 million dollars on the assumption that disruption to maritime routes continues. The full year is guided at 3.5 billion dollars to 4 billion dollars, and that figure rests on maritime operations being fully restored by the fourth quarter and on product pricing returning to normal. The same molecules, two sets of numbers, separated by whether a ship can load.[1]
Where the 8.2 billion dollars stops
Alongside the result came final investment decisions on the second and third phases of the Rich Gas Development project and 8.2 billion dollars of engineering and construction awards. Wison Engineering takes 3.9 billion dollars for a natural gas processing train at Habshan; Tecnimont takes 4.3 billion dollars for a natural gas liquids fractionation train at Ruwais. With the 5 billion dollars approved for the first phase in June 2025, the project now carries 13.2 billion dollars of committed spending.[1]
Habshan and Ruwais are both on the landward side of the strait. A new processing train raises how much rich gas can be treated; a new fractionation train raises how much high-value liquid can be recovered from it. Neither adds a berth outside the Gulf. On the company's own account the quarter was held back at the loading end while the processing end was recovering, which points to liftings as the constraint that bound. The fair alternative is that product prices in a softer gas market did more of the damage and the lifting shortfall was the smaller effect; the reason to doubt that reading is the guidance itself, which is conditioned on shipping.[1]
The strait keeps its own clock
Iran spent the weekend attaching six conditions to reopening the waterway, among them the withdrawal of American forces from around Iran, compensation for war damage and the release of frozen assets. Brent opened the week at 84.24 dollars a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at 78.70 dollars. The Houthi military spokesman said the group had hit Aramco's 400,000 barrel per day refinery at Jazan, shut since an earlier attack in late July, and the Red Sea port of Yanbu, which handles most of Saudi Arabia's oil exports. The routes built to avoid the Gulf are being worked on too.[2]
That leaves a measurable test. If shipping through the strait stays restricted through September, the third-quarter net income figure should land inside the 600 million dollars to 800 million dollars band the company named, and the 3.5 billion dollars to 4 billion dollars full-year range should survive the next report unchanged. A third-quarter figure above that band would mean the inventory and logistics measures are doing more than the guidance assumes; a restated full-year range would mean the fourth-quarter restoration the company priced has slipped.[1], [2]