How many hectares are in the ground
By early September 2.6 million hectares of winter crops had been planted, 2.4 million hectares of that in wheat. SovEcon reads that about 25 per cent below the recent average. In a survey of about 1,000 farmers, 26 per cent plan to abandon winter wheat entirely, 32 per cent plan to cut area, and 29 per cent expect to match last year.[1]
The figure is planted area, not a capacity headline. The crop starts from the hectares that received seed; an announced harvest cannot be written until that area is closed.[1]
When exports stall, bins fill
SovEcon said August grain exports fell by almost 60 per cent year on year to 2.2 million tons, and September shipments may stay around 2 million tons. Under a pessimistic ProZerno scenario, as much as 35 million tons of grain from the 2026 crop, including around 22 million tons of wheat, could remain unsold domestically if export problems persist.[1]
Grain that stays at home presses the farm-gate price; when cash for fuel, seed and fertiliser runs short, autumn sowing is cut. The survey is that decision: area is set before an ear is cut.[1]
The fuel bill squeezes the planting window
Farmers cited a shortage of cash for fuel in the autumn campaign. In the same window Brent traded at 103.83 dollars a barrel and WTI at 101.01 dollars. Dearer fuel raises the cost of tractor hours and fertiliser haulage; that is one cash channel that cuts planted hectares.[1], [2]
Another reading is that export infrastructure is doing the cutting, with fuel only riding along. The test is hectares planted in the autumn campaign against shipment tons in the same stretch.[1]