Two directions in one month
Gas prices in Britain rose 14.7 per cent in July, where a year earlier they had fallen 7.2 per cent in the same month. That was the sharpest monthly rise in gas prices since October 2022. Electricity rose 3.6 per cent, against a fall of 3.8 per cent last July. The rise came from Ofgem updating the energy price cap; a dual-fuel household's annual bill went up by 221 pounds to 1,862 pounds.[1]
In transport, prices went the other way. Diesel fell 8.8 pence per litre to average 167.6 pence and petrol fell 3.1 pence to 152.2 pence, where a year earlier the two had risen 2.9 and 2.0 pence. The fall does not erase the annual picture: motor fuels are still 15.5 per cent above their level a year before, though that rate stood at 21.3 per cent a month earlier. In this item, which the Ofgem cap does not cover, the price can move on a monthly scale.[1]
Crude got cheaper and the refinery gate opened slowly
Producer prices show what energy cost in the same month. The crude oil input price paid by industry fell 18.0 per cent between June and July, and its annual rate came down from 41.9 per cent to 10.6 per cent. Across all inputs the annual rate fell from 7.4 per cent to 4.9 per cent and the monthly change moved from minus 1.9 per cent to minus 1.7 per cent. The bulletin from ONS also states that July's data continue to be affected by the conflict in the Middle East.[2]
At the factory gate the picture differs. Coke and refined petroleum products fell 2.9 per cent in July, in the same month that the crude oil input fell 18.0 per cent. Over the year those products remain 30.1 per cent above where they were. The gap shows that most of the decline stayed at the refining and distribution stage in July. Factory gate prices as a whole in fact rose 0.2 per cent on the month, and their annual rate fell from 3.5 per cent to 3.1 per cent.[2]
Two prices, two clocks
Setting the two series side by side dissolves July's oddity. In one month the crude oil input fell 18.0 per cent while the household gas bill rose 14.7 per cent. The gas rise comes less from that month's own wholesale movement than from the scheduled update of the Ofgem cap, while the 8.8 pence fall in diesel at the pump sits on the same calendar as the fall in crude. Another explanation is available: gas and crude are separate products and their wholesale prices may genuinely have moved in different directions in July. The gap would then be explained by two separate markets moving apart, and timing would count for less.[1], [2]
There is a measurable way to follow this. If the crude oil input price does not rise appreciably above its July level, the annual factory gate rate for coke and refined petroleum products should fall below 30.1 per cent in the producer price bulletins published up to 31 October 2026. If the rate stubbornly holds, the explanation that another cost has entered between the two stages gains ground.[2]