The contract locks in 1,275 megawatts at Churchill Falls and leaves the rest to be studied

The only firm addition: 1,275 megawatts

N.L. Hydro says the new agreement raises the capacity of the already operating Churchill Falls plant by 23.5 per cent, or 1,275 megawatts. The 2024 memorandum of understanding put the same upgrade at 550 megawatts. This item is a refit at an existing facility; because it needs no new dam and no new reservoir, its delivery schedule is the shortest in the package.^[1]

The same text describes the Gull Island hydroelectric project, a new powerhouse at Churchill Falls and a 2,000 megawatt onshore wind project as headings to be studied. The genuinely large numbers in Ottawa's presentation, the near-tripling of capacity to 14,000 megawatts and roughly 70 billion dollars of investment, all depend on how those studies end. I drew the same distinction in July over the strategic petroleum reserve announcements: announced capacity did not change the count of barrels in storage until the buying and the building actually happened.^{[1], [2]}

The price schedule is what lifts the take

The price Hydro-Quebec pays for Churchill Falls power rises from 0.2 cents to 1.8 cents per kilowatt hour next year, then climbs 14 per cent a year to reach 11.5 cents in 2041. N.L. Hydro says the agreement lifts the value to the province from the 36 billion dollars in the 2024 memorandum of understanding to 49 billion dollars in net present value.^[1]

Most of that increase comes from a new price applied to power that already flows: the 0.2 cent tariff left over from the 1969 contract is replaced by 1.8 cents, and the annual step runs on its own. Another reading is possible: because Newfoundland and Labrador's own share rises from 1,990 megawatts to 2,350 megawatts, part of the gap may genuinely come from the new allocation. Only the text of the definitive agreements can show which part came from where.^[1]

The date that binds the schedule: March 31, 2027

The text expires on March 31, 2027 unless the parties sign definitive agreements earlier or agree to extend it. Wakeham said he would convene a special sitting of the House of Assembly on September 14 in place of the referendum he had promised. If no definitive agreement is signed by that date, the only physical change left standing is the 1,275 megawatt refit at the operating plant.^[1]

Ottawa's share of the package is 10 billion dollars of financing and, on the two governments' joint account, 23,000 jobs. The concrete money committed today is far smaller: Natural Resources Canada is providing at least 2.3 million dollars to complete an engineering and design study for transmission lines carrying more power to western Labrador, and 439,844 dollars for preconstruction and feasibility planning at the Kami iron ore project southwest of Wabush. That distance between a study budget and a construction budget describes the stage this project has reached better than the 70 billion dollars headline does.^[1]