The gap measured in tonnes
Russia's gasoline production fell to about 80,000 tonnes a day at the end of August, and two industry sources put that at only 70 per cent of domestic demand. The monthly average was about 90,000 tonnes a day, roughly 80 per cent of estimated summer demand of 115,000 tonnes a day. The difference is about 35,000 tonnes a day. Over the past week drones struck and halted refineries at Perm, Nizhny Novgorod and Yaroslavl, all significant producers of motor gasoline.[1]
The gap shows up at the pump as rationing rather than as a price story. Regional authorities have brought back per-customer purchase limits and sales schedules keyed to vehicle registration plates. Drivers avoid nonessential trips because of the risk of long queues at filling stations or running out of fuel, and that suppressed demand has partially softened the impact of the shortages. The demand side of the balance is shrinking on its own, and that shrinkage masks how wide the gap really is.[1]
Where the missing tonnes come from
The tonnes that close the gap arrive as imports. Market participants put seaborne supplies from Asian countries at about 270,000 tonnes for August and gasoline from Belarus at around 150,000 tonnes, roughly 5,000 tonnes a day. Traders estimate that 220,000 tonnes of imported gasoline have already arrived in Russia, averaging around 7,000 tonnes a day. With imports supplementing domestic production, supplies to the domestic market could average about 97,000 tonnes a day in August, or around 85 per cent of demand.[1]
The same refinery outages show up in the government's export column. The cabinet extended the ban on exports of diesel, marine fuel and gas oils shipped out by producers through 30 September 2026, and a general ban on fuel exports runs to 31 January 2027. The government has allowed lower-grade Euro-2, Euro-3 and Euro-4 fuel onto the market, and Russia has been importing refined products since July. The export ban and the 220,000 tonnes of imported gasoline are two entries in one balance: one cuts the volume leaving the country, the other brings the missing tonnes in.[2], [1]
What the ban can and cannot close
An export ban can redirect volume only to the extent that refineries are producing it. With output down to 80,000 tonnes a day, the quantity the ban can turn back towards the domestic market shrinks too, and the line that actually covers the 35,000 tonne daily gap is the import flow running at 7,000 tonnes a day. Another explanation is available: gasoline exports may already be small against this gap, and restored refinery run rates rather than the ban could decide the balance.[2], [1]
The signal to watch is tonnage rather than price. As long as the refineries at Perm, Nizhny Novgorod and Yaroslavl stay down, gasoline from Belarus is likely to hold near 5,000 tonnes a day and regional sales limits are likely to stay in place. If both ease together, the balance is being repaired on the production side; if only imports grow, the gap sits where it is and domestic supply stays pinned at about 85 per cent of demand.[1]