The scale of the gap and the bridge
Energy Aspects forecasts a fourth-quarter European jet-fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels a day. The same balance shows daily surpluses of 18,000 barrels in the US and 419,000 barrels in Asia-Pacific. With disruption in the Middle East removing around half of Europe's imports, the bind sits in getting fuel to the right coast rather than in the global total alone.[1]
Flow data from Energy Aspects show that September shipments from South Korea to Europe reached 129,000 barrels a day, the highest since October 2022. That volume shows Asia's surplus can move once the price gap makes the voyage worthwhile. Yet the bridge carries far less than Europe's projected deficit: distant supply opens a route without delivering the full missing volume.[1]
The empty tank widens the price gap
Data from Energy Aspects show independently held jet-fuel stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub fell to a seven-year low in the week to September 10. South Korean output reached a seven-year high of almost 13.89 million barrels in July as refineries raised crude runs 16 per cent from June to 2.7 million barrels a day. Europe's draining tank and Asia's added output are drawing the same cargo together.[1]
As the price gap between Asia and Europe widens, the long voyage becomes profitable. That mechanism offers relief, while sailing time, refinery output and starting stocks limit the response. The deficit could narrow if European demand weakens or other refineries raise output faster than expected. The concrete signals are South Korean flows, European storage volumes and the price gap between the two regions.[1]