The storage gap
The hard number in EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen’s letter is storage at roughly 70% full, about 12 percentage points below the same time last year. Stored gas is the physical buffer used when winter demand rises. Closing that gap requires gas to arrive.[1]
His proposal also works on the demand side. Lower electricity use at peak times can reduce gas burned at power plants and leave more gas available for storage. Weather and the power generation mix could change how much that measure achieves.[1]
The timing of purchases matters
Jørgensen asked governments to consider the flexibility of an 80% storage level instead of rushing toward 90%. Large purchases made together in a tight global market can lift prices. Spreading them out may ease that pressure, while a winter with fewer available cargoes would leave a smaller buffer.[1]
The letter says there is no immediate threat to supply security. The useful balance to watch is gas injected into storage against gas taken out by power stations and buildings as temperatures fall. Asian competition for cargoes and supply disruptions may tighten it; milder weather and effective conservation may ease it.[1]